How to correctly evaluate decisions - by result or not

Evaluation of others' and your own actions only by the result is very destructive and harmful both for the evaluator himself and for the one who is being evaluated. Today I suggest you change your thinking a little, making it fairer and more objective where it is needed most of all - in assessing the decisions made.

Outcome bias

Psychology distinguishes a lot of cognitive distortions - that is, the typical "illogicalities" of our thinking: errors and stereotyped deviations. This is a very interesting and useful topic for everybody’s development, I highly recommend all readers to familiarize themselves with it. But according to the subject of this article, we are most interested in a distortion, which is called "outcome bias”. This is the name of the unfair assessment of decisions based on the result. And here's a simple example.

The story of a bad boss

The boss put a new person in the manager's position, and this person is completely unable to cope with his duties. It can be assumed that the boss is a bad decision maker - in fact, this is what the subordinates will most likely do, starting to scold their boss in every way: "He does not understand people." "Surely he’s got here through the backdoor." But this is not necessarily true.

In fact, the boss chose the manager based on his education, previous work experience, recommendations from previous bosses and subordinates - in short, he took into account many factors that he could know and consider. But immediately after taking position, the new manager began to experience problems in his personal life, and he could no longer concentrate on work and perform it efficiently. Was the boss's decision in this case wrong? Not at all, on the contrary - it was a good and balanced decision, just a chance, that the boss could not foresee, intervened in the matter.

This example clearly demonstrates how we can combat cognitive biases. Have you already guessed?

To judge the decisions made, you need to take into account only the information that was available at the time of making the decisions.

The Baron and Hershey Experiment

As another example of an outcome bias, I would like to cite the first experiment that confirmed the very existence of this bias. It was conducted by researchers Jonathan Baron and John Hershey. They told a group of participants that a certain person is now in a serious condition. The doctor who is treating him decided to carry out a risky operation. If successful, the patient would have expected a full recovery, but the operation could have ended in his death. The result of the operation did not depend on the doctor performing it.

After giving this information, the researchers divided the participants in the experiment into two groups. They reported to the first group that the operation was successful, and to others the opposite. They then asked the participants to rate the competence of the doctor. Of course, the first group was inclined to believe that the doctor's decision about the operation was adequate and competent. But the latter group scolded the doctor for a bad decision and criticized his medical competence.

And what's wrong with that?

It would seem that we are positive about good results and negative about bad, so what's the big deal? Why should this cognitive bias be corrected? There are several reasons for this.

Incorrect personality assessment

Let's go back to our example of a "bad" boss. We have already come to the conclusion that his decision to appoint the manager was good and well-founded. But those who judged this only by the result, did not assess his competence so highly. It was him whom they blamed for the staffing error. This unfair assessment can affect the future career of the boss and even lead to his dismissal - just imagine that the CEO saw the incompetence of the new manager but did not know about the well-considered decision about his entry into the position.

The tendency to rely on the result can play in the other direction too. For example, an unscrupulous doctor offers a patient expensive pills, since he himself receives a part of the profit for selling them. At the same time, there is a cheaper analogue that has the same effect. The pills worked, the patient recovered. For most outsiders, this was a good decision. But was it so? No. After all, the doctor was guided not by helping the patient, but by his own profit.

A tendency to rely on chance

The habit of judging by the outcome often forces us to make decisions based not on available facts, but on chance. After the bar, a friend of mine drove in his car in a tipsy state, and no one stopped him. Well, then I might get lucky too. My classmate passed the exam without preparation. It means, I can do the same – just putting off the textbooks and continuing to be lazy. Does it sound familiar?

Thinking like this takes away control of your life. Relying on chance, you will not come to the goal, but you will chaotically rush around it. Instead, it is better to clearly formulate your goal, assign steps to achieve it and implement them in good faith - our free Service will help you with this.

Self-reproach

The most dangerous consequence of this cognitive distortion is trying to take responsibility for everything. You've probably had moments when things went awry, no matter how hard you tried. At this time, the thought might creep into your mind: "This is because I am doing everything wrong!" Such thoughts can easily drive yourself to despair. But in fact, not everything in the world depends on you - at some point a blind chance will interfere with your plans and disrupt them. And that doesn't make your decisions (and you personally) bad.

Correcting the error

So, what can we do to correct this distortion? Ask yourself the following questions:

• What information did I have at the moment of making the decision?
• Was it possible to predict the turn of events that led to the failure?
• Was there any choice at all?

It is best to write down your answers on paper so you can notice if you are unknowingly deceiving yourself. Ask these questions every time you make a difficult decision and come back to the answers if the results of the decision are not as rosy as you would like. This will help protect yourself against self-reproach and shifting of responsibility.

Having got rid of the habit of evaluating decisions by the result, you will be able to correctly delineate responsibility. Thinking free from this distortion is able to suggest the most effective and efficient solutions. And even if they will not always lead to the desired result, you will know for sure that you have done everything that was in your power. Share this article with your friends and strive for clean and objective thinking together!

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